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This was a poorly-thought-through review but I think it covers most bases. The issue is that it is healthier and more supportive of the persistence of a rally when there is broad participation from the universe of stocks.

Consider that…. Although the Nasdaq NDX jumped about 1. That means that roughly two thirds of all Nasdaq stocks declined on the day, despite the rally in the cap-weighted NDX.

This chart illustrates that — and marks all 8 days, historically, that saw the NDX up at least 1. While the NDX was again up about 1. The others led to a long-term bear market or at least an intermediate-term correction prior to a significant low However, as we see more and more examples of these days, our concern level over the fate of the current rally is continuing to grow.

The 3rd quarter of election years has been the best performing quarter of the entire Presidential Cycle — though, there are some caveats.

While it is typically well down on our list of investing inputs, seasonality can have a meaningful influence on markets. In fact, in the long-run, there have been few trading systems that would have kept pace with even a rather simple seasonality system.

And one of the seasonal patterns with a respectable track record is the Presidential Cycle. The Presidential Cycle refers to the behavior of the stock market vis-a-vis a 4-year Presidential term.

Throughout time, stocks have tended to do very well during some periods of the Cycle, and not-so-well during other parts.

It is not a fool-proof system, but it has behaved consistently enough to seriously consider its statistical merit. Given its track record, we are in a particularly interesting period of the Cycle.

Specifically, since , the best performing quarter of the Presidential Cycle, using the Dow Jones Industrial Average, has been the 3rd quarter of election years i.

Thus, we should not be surprised to see stocks off to a strong start to the quarter thus far. Before we get too carried away, however, there are a few caveats that may prevent one from becoming too blindly bullish.

First, seasonality does not work every time. One need only look at the prior quarter to see that the pattern does not always work.

While the 2nd quarter of election years is, on average, the worst performer of the entire Cycle, stocks put up their best quarter in over 30 years, coming off of the March crash.

Secondly, the election year 3rd quarter average return benefits, in part, from one very large quarter back in Lastly, and speaking of , some folks would take exception to including results back to They would instead advocate for beginning the study in , following passage of the 20th Amendment which pulled forward the inauguration date and Congressional start date to the January following the election.

So while seasonality in general, and the Presidential Cycle specifically have respectable track records, there are plenty of other factors that we would focus on first as inputs into our investment decision-making process.

However, based on more recent performance, we would have to temper that enthusiasm a bit. As our members and followers know, we monitor all types of markets in all types of asset classes in all areas around the globe.

Now, the fact that a global equity market has made it back to new highs is impressive in itself. A really long time. Yesterday, the Taiex closed at a new all-time high for the first time since February 12…of !

So, is this an interesting bit of market trivia or is there something potentially profitable here for investors?

We believe it is the latter…eventually. How and when do we plan on taking advantage of the potential opportunity in Taiwan?

Like a breath mint for halitosis, sometimes the performance in the popular, cap-weighted stock averages can mask underlying weakness in the overall market breadth i.

As such, market conditions may not be quite as robust as the indices would suggest. To wit:. Despite that solid gain, the broad NYSE Composite actually closed slightly down on the day as there were more declining issues than advancers on the exchange.

In the 55 years of data in our database, that is just the 4th time — and the first in 40 years — that the SPX has gained that much on a day that the NYSE was down.

Relaxing the parameters a bit, we dove a little deeper into the data and identified all days during that period that saw the SPX gain at least 0.

This chart shows all 9 such days in the past 55 years. As you can see, several of the previous incidents occurred at quite inauspicious times in the market — including near cyclical peaks in , , and History does not have to repeat, but these are not exactly optimistic precedents.

Another example of the disparity between the performance of the popular large-cap averages and those broader indices on Monday can be seen in a comparison between the large-cap Nasdaq NDX and the Russell RUT small-cap index.

On the flip side, the RUT actually closed down on the day by 0. The only other date in our 30 years of data on the 2 indices that saw this combination of behavior was the 1st day of the millennium also not a great time to be buying stocks.

So, what is the takeaway here? Is the stock market doomed? There are certainly more important factors that go into our investment decision-making process, namely our objective, quantitative models.

Sentiment indicators can provide insight into the overall level of bullishness i. When sentiment reaches an extreme in one direction or the other, the market becomes more susceptible to counter-trend move — and a rug-pull of the prevailing investor sentiment.

We may be approaching such a condition based on data from the equity options market. One example is an options put:call ratio.

This indicator can measure trader bullishness i. Currently, we can assume that bullishness among options traders is at an extreme based on the inordinate amount of money flowing into equity calls vs.

While this extreme reading may not necessarily mean the stock rally is over, it does suggest that further gains from here may be difficult to sustain — at least when looking historically at prior readings below even 0.

Those 4 precedents going back to led to either an extended stagnation in the stock market e. As mentioned, this data point does not necessarily spell doom for the market.

In fact, we would not consider it by itself to be a catalyst to a decline. However, should a catalyst present itself or should the market merely begin to sell off , these conditions in the options market could exacerbate a potential decline.

The reason being is that there is relatively very little hedging going on — and, thus, traders are exceedingly complacent and historically ill-prepared for a decline right now.

After holding key support levels in prior days, the recent market laggards scored big gains yesterday. Normally such a rise in the stock index would see a sizable decline in volatility expectations.

Furthermore, before yesterday, just 7 of those days saw the RVX close higher or essentially unchanged — none in the past decade. So, what is this data point telling us?

And, thus, is this a warning of the potential unsustainability of the small-cap bounce? There is anecdotal, if not statistically significant evidence to support an affirmative answer to both those questions.

We do observe similar incidents in August and September that preceded massive market declines. On the other hand, the last several occurrences took place in the aftermath of the March market low which simply led to a further extension of the equity rally.

However, we will say that, based on our research, the standoff between stocks and volatility is not an ideal condition for stock investors in the longer-term.

This even includes one group of managers known for their risk-conscious management style. For the most part, the goal of such strategies is to reduce investment risk by applying processes to mitigate losses when they view markets as high-risk.

Apparently, this group sees very little risk in the market at this time. That means that the average manager is presently leveraged long in the stock market.

Of course, the natural inclination is to think that, from a contrarian perspective, this show of extreme collective bullishness must be troublesome for stocks.

As you can see, while there was at times trouble in the longer-term e. While historical precedents do not necessarily bear it out statistically, we would rather see skeptical sentiment from most any group, rather than consensus bullish readings.

But while we would not necessarily categorize this data point as a buy signal, I think we can definitively say that an Equity Exposure reading this high is not necessarily a death knell for the rally by any means.

Here are some of the most noteworthy highs and lows from across the markets for Friday, August 7, A few weeks ago , we noted that despite large rallies in the major averages, daily breadth readings were historically weak.

The issue is that it is healthier and more supportive of the persistence of a rally when there is broad participation from the universe of stocks.

Consider that…. Although the Nasdaq NDX jumped about 1. That means that roughly two thirds of all Nasdaq stocks declined on the day, despite the rally in the cap-weighted NDX.

This chart illustrates that — and marks all 8 days, historically, that saw the NDX up at least 1. While the NDX was again up about 1. The others led to a long-term bear market or at least an intermediate-term correction prior to a significant low However, as we see more and more examples of these days, our concern level over the fate of the current rally is continuing to grow.

The 3rd quarter of election years has been the best performing quarter of the entire Presidential Cycle — though, there are some caveats. While it is typically well down on our list of investing inputs, seasonality can have a meaningful influence on markets.

In fact, in the long-run, there have been few trading systems that would have kept pace with even a rather simple seasonality system.

And one of the seasonal patterns with a respectable track record is the Presidential Cycle. The Presidential Cycle refers to the behavior of the stock market vis-a-vis a 4-year Presidential term.

Throughout time, stocks have tended to do very well during some periods of the Cycle, and not-so-well during other parts.

It is not a fool-proof system, but it has behaved consistently enough to seriously consider its statistical merit.

Given its track record, we are in a particularly interesting period of the Cycle. Specifically, since , the best performing quarter of the Presidential Cycle, using the Dow Jones Industrial Average, has been the 3rd quarter of election years i.

Thus, we should not be surprised to see stocks off to a strong start to the quarter thus far. Before we get too carried away, however, there are a few caveats that may prevent one from becoming too blindly bullish.

First, seasonality does not work every time. One need only look at the prior quarter to see that the pattern does not always work.

While the 2nd quarter of election years is, on average, the worst performer of the entire Cycle, stocks put up their best quarter in over 30 years, coming off of the March crash.

Secondly, the election year 3rd quarter average return benefits, in part, from one very large quarter back in Lastly, and speaking of , some folks would take exception to including results back to They would instead advocate for beginning the study in , following passage of the 20th Amendment which pulled forward the inauguration date and Congressional start date to the January following the election.

So while seasonality in general, and the Presidential Cycle specifically have respectable track records, there are plenty of other factors that we would focus on first as inputs into our investment decision-making process.

However, based on more recent performance, we would have to temper that enthusiasm a bit. As our members and followers know, we monitor all types of markets in all types of asset classes in all areas around the globe.

Now, the fact that a global equity market has made it back to new highs is impressive in itself. A really long time. Yesterday, the Taiex closed at a new all-time high for the first time since February 12…of !

So, is this an interesting bit of market trivia or is there something potentially profitable here for investors?

We believe it is the latter…eventually. How and when do we plan on taking advantage of the potential opportunity in Taiwan?

Like a breath mint for halitosis, sometimes the performance in the popular, cap-weighted stock averages can mask underlying weakness in the overall market breadth i.

As such, market conditions may not be quite as robust as the indices would suggest. To wit:. Despite that solid gain, the broad NYSE Composite actually closed slightly down on the day as there were more declining issues than advancers on the exchange.

In the 55 years of data in our database, that is just the 4th time — and the first in 40 years — that the SPX has gained that much on a day that the NYSE was down.

Relaxing the parameters a bit, we dove a little deeper into the data and identified all days during that period that saw the SPX gain at least 0.

This chart shows all 9 such days in the past 55 years. As you can see, several of the previous incidents occurred at quite inauspicious times in the market — including near cyclical peaks in , , and History does not have to repeat, but these are not exactly optimistic precedents.

Another example of the disparity between the performance of the popular large-cap averages and those broader indices on Monday can be seen in a comparison between the large-cap Nasdaq NDX and the Russell RUT small-cap index.

On the flip side, the RUT actually closed down on the day by 0. The only other date in our 30 years of data on the 2 indices that saw this combination of behavior was the 1st day of the millennium also not a great time to be buying stocks.

So, what is the takeaway here? Is the stock market doomed? There are certainly more important factors that go into our investment decision-making process, namely our objective, quantitative models.

Sentiment indicators can provide insight into the overall level of bullishness i. When sentiment reaches an extreme in one direction or the other, the market becomes more susceptible to counter-trend move — and a rug-pull of the prevailing investor sentiment.

We may be approaching such a condition based on data from the equity options market. One example is an options put:call ratio.

This indicator can measure trader bullishness i. Currently, we can assume that bullishness among options traders is at an extreme based on the inordinate amount of money flowing into equity calls vs.

While this extreme reading may not necessarily mean the stock rally is over, it does suggest that further gains from here may be difficult to sustain — at least when looking historically at prior readings below even 0.

Those 4 precedents going back to led to either an extended stagnation in the stock market e. As mentioned, this data point does not necessarily spell doom for the market.

No big deal. Version Thanks for choosing Tumblr, a place to connect with others over shared interests. Follow changes.

I like Tumblr a lot. It has a few bugs, but not too many more than other apps. My primary blog was one I made when I was 13, ignored for years, then logged back into and wanted to start fresh.

When you tap the search bar on your profile, it has suggested tags that someone can select to see all posts on your page with that tag.

This app has so many issues that have yet to be solved after at least a year or two of them existing. The app will randomly crash for seemingly no reason, even while under little to no stress.

This was a poorly-thought-through review but I think it covers most bases. Otherwise, it works enough. Before Tumblr was a mess because of their bad coding — crashing after a little while of use, GIFs and images refusing to load almost constantly, videos not playing correctly, the list goes on.

Not only that, but a large portion of users are here for nsfw content. Porn bots are still rampant, neo-nazis and white nationalists and pedophiles are still free to roam while artists and content creators suffer greatly from the way this algorithm works.

It has so much potential wasted by a terrible management. Requires iOS Compatible with iPhone, iPad, and iPod touch.

App Store Preview. Screenshots iPhone iPad. Description Tumblr is where your interests connect you to your people. Oct 6, Version Ratings and Reviews See All.

Why do you need to know, cop? Information Seller Tumblr, Inc.

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